Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Lazio–Pisa

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'PisaS. Moreo (assist: M. Aebischer)
33'LazioF. Dele-Bashiru (assist: Reda Belahyane)
35'LazioPedro (assist: Tijjani Noslin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lazio		Pisa
15	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
536	Passes	552
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lazio 1.66 · Pisa 0.83. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Lazio 15 · Pisa 8; on target 9 and 2.

Referee

M. Caputi→

4.40

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “Lazio to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Lazio, 0.92 for Pisa.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Lazio win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,512 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lazio to win56.4%

Draw25.2%

Pisa to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lazio win or draw81.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or Pisa win43.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Lazio lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time47.4%

Pisa lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Lazio ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Pisa ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1512 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lazio: at least 9Actual: 9
Pisa: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Lazio: at least 4Actual: 5
Pisa: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lazio score1.66

Attack: Lazio score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pisa concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pisa score0.83

Attack: Pisa score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lazio's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–011.5%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1512 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.