Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Cagliari–Torino

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'TorinoRafael Obrador (assist: M. Prati)
39'CagliariS. Esposito (assist: G. Gaetano)
45'CagliariY. Mina

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cagliari		Torino
13	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
413	Passes	510
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cagliari 1.22 · Torino 1.22. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Cagliari 13 · Torino 10; on target 4 and 3.
Torino kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Arena→

4.68

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Cagliari to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Cagliari, 1.01 for Torino.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (1X — Cagliari win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cagliari to win44.0%

Draw29.4%

Torino to win26.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Cagliari lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time47.6%

Torino lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cagliari ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Torino ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1507 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cagliari: at least 10Actual: 8
Torino: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Cagliari: at least 4Actual: 5
Torino: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cagliari score1.22

Attack: Cagliari score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Torino score1.22

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–012.0%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.