Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Sassuolo–Lecce

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'LecceW. Cheddira
20'SassuoloArmand Laurienté (assist: Pedro Felipe)
25'LecceW. Cheddira (assist: L. Banda)
82'SassuoloA. Pinamonti (assist: U. Garcia)
90'LecceNikola Štulić (assist: O. Gandelman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sassuolo		Lecce
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	8
2	Offsides	2
74%	Possession	26%
634	Passes	208
547	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sassuolo 1.46 · Lecce 0.90. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Sassuolo 15 · Lecce 11; on target 6 and 6.
Sassuolo kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

F. La Penna→

4.52

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Sassuolo to win”. Second comes “Lecce to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Sassuolo, 1.23 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sassuolo to win37.5%

Draw28.9%

Lecce to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Sassuolo lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time47.6%

Lecce lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sassuolo ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1507 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sassuolo: at least 12Actual: 7
Lecce: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Sassuolo: at least 5Actual: 2
Lecce: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sassuolo score1.46

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.90

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.5%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.