Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Atalanta–Bologna

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'BolognaR. Orsolini (assist: J. Rowe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		Bologna
10	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
401	Passes	479
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 1.57 · Bologna 0.96. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Atalanta 10 · Bologna 10; on target 1 and 5.
Bologna kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Perenzoni→

5.02

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Atalanta, 1.14 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Atalanta win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,506 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win55.2%

Draw23.9%

Bologna to win21.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Atalanta win or draw79.0%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Bologna win44.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Atalanta lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time43.9%

Bologna lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Atalanta ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Bologna ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1506 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atalanta: at least 12Actual: 17
Bologna: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Atalanta: at least 5Actual: 2
Bologna: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score1.57

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score0.96

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–110.9%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1506 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 150 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.