Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Genoa–AC Milan

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 10:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'AC MilanC. Nkunku (penalty)
81'AC MilanZachary Athekame (assist: Christian Pulišić)
86'GenoaJohan Vásquez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genoa		AC Milan
11	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
477	Passes	288
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genoa 1.06 · AC Milan 1.40. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Genoa 11 · AC Milan 8; on target 2 and 6.
Genoa kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Sozza→

4.44

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Genoa, 1.63 for AC Milan.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (X2 — draw or AC Milan win).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genoa to win17.6%

Draw26.2%

AC Milan to win56.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Genoa lead at half-time23.0%

Level at half-time47.4%

AC Milan lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Genoa ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or AC Milan ahead77.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genoa: at least 11Actual: 8
AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Genoa: at least 3Actual: 4
AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genoa score1.06

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Milan score1.40

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.3%1–113.2%0–211.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.