Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

AC Milan–Atalanta

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AtalantaÉderson
29'AtalantaDavide Zappacosta (assist: Nikola Krstović)
51'AtalantaGiacomo Raspadori (assist: Éderson)
88'AC MilanStrahinja Pavlović (assist: Samuele Ricci)
90'AC MilanC. Nkunku (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Atalanta
20	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
2	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
542	Passes	408
478	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.36 · Atalanta 1.19. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots AC Milan 20 · Atalanta 9; on target 9 and 5.
AC Milan kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Zufferli→

3.95

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “Atalanta to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for AC Milan, 1.21 for Atalanta.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,498 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win42.8%

Draw27.6%

Atalanta to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

AC Milan lead at half-time25.8%

Level at half-time46.1%

Atalanta lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Atalanta ahead74.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1498 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 9Actual: 8
Atalanta: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 2
Atalanta: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.36

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atalanta score1.19

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.