Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Fiorentina–Genoa

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fiorentina		Genoa
13	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
414	Passes	313
350	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fiorentina 1.42 · Genoa 1.09. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Fiorentina 13 · Genoa 9; on target 1 and 3.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

L. Massimi→

4.61

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Fiorentina, 1.03 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Fiorentina win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fiorentina to win47.6%

Draw27.8%

Genoa to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fiorentina lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time46.0%

Genoa lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fiorentina ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1495 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 13
Genoa: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Fiorentina: at least 5Actual: 4
Genoa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fiorentina score1.42

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score1.09

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.2%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.