Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Hellas Verona–Como

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

71'ComoAnastasios Douvikas (assist: Marc Kempf)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Como
11	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
277	Passes	506
202	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 0.73 · Como 1.58. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hellas Verona 11 · Como 11; on target 3 and 4.
Como kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Di Bello→

4.18

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.3%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.69 for Hellas Verona, 2.03 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 89.7% (X2 — draw or Como win).
These values were computed from 1,494 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win10.3%

Draw20.4%

Como to win69.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hellas Verona win or draw30.7%

12 — any result other than a draw79.6%

X2 — draw or Como win89.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hellas Verona lead at half-time8.8%

Level at half-time39.6%

Como lead at half-time51.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level48.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Como ahead91.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1494 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 14Actual: 17
Como: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 7
Como: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.73

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score1.58

Attack: Como score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.0%0–112.7%1–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1494 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 73 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.