Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 35

AS Roma–Fiorentina

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Monday, 4 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'AS RomaGianluca Mancini (assist: Niccolò Pisilli)
17'AS RomaWesley (assist: Mario Hermoso)
34'AS RomaMario Hermoso (assist: Manu Koné)
58'AS RomaNiccolò Pisilli (assist: Donyell Malen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Fiorentina
14	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
595	Passes	373
539	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.50 · Fiorentina 1.02. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots AS Roma 14 · Fiorentina 4; on target 7 and 1.
AS Roma kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

L. Zufferli→

3.95

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for AS Roma, 0.84 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,489 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win63.0%

Draw22.7%

Fiorentina to win14.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AS Roma win or draw85.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.3%

X2 — draw or Fiorentina win37.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.7%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

AS Roma lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time46.1%

Fiorentina lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1489 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 13Actual: 12
Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

AS Roma: at least 4Actual: 4
Fiorentina: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.50

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.02

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%1–111.5%1–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1489 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 148 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.