Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 35

Inter–Parma

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'InterMarcus Thuram (assist: Piotr Zieliński)
80'InterH. Mkhitaryan (assist: Lautaro Martínez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Parma
12	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
581	Passes	420
534	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 2.17 · Parma 0.56. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Inter 12 · Parma 4; on target 5 and 0.
Inter kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

K. Bonacina→

4.47

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.9%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Inter, 0.68 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 93.9% (1X — Inter win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,487 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win79.9%

Draw14.0%

Parma to win6.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Inter win or draw93.9%

12 — any result other than a draw86.0%

X2 — draw or Parma win20.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Inter lead at half-time51.4%

Level at half-time40.7%

Parma lead at half-time7.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Inter ahead or level92.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Parma ahead48.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1487 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Inter: at least 12Actual: 9
Parma: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Inter: at least 6Actual: 8
Parma: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score2.17

Attack: Inter score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score0.56

Attack: Parma score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%3–011.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1487 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.