Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 35

Juventus–Hellas Verona

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 13%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Hellas VeronaKieron Bowie (assist: D. Bradaric)
62'JuventusD. Vlahovic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juventus		Hellas Verona
29	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
14	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
76%	Possession	24%
653	Passes	214
565	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juventus 1.90 · Hellas Verona 0.57. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Juventus 29 · Hellas Verona 7; on target 7 and 3.
Juventus kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

G. Ayroldi→

5.92

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.5%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.58 for Juventus, 0.58 for Hellas Verona.
The highest double chance value is 94.9% (1X — Juventus win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,486 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juventus to win81.5%

Draw13.4%

Hellas Verona to win5.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Juventus win or draw94.9%

12 — any result other than a draw86.6%

X2 — draw or Hellas Verona win18.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Juventus lead at half-time55.0%

Level at half-time38.4%

Hellas Verona lead at half-time6.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Juventus ahead or level93.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Hellas Verona ahead45.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1486 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juventus: at least 9Actual: 9
Hellas Verona: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Juventus: at least 5Actual: 14
Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juventus score1.90

Attack: Juventus score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.57

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.7%3–012.7%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1486 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 148 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.