Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 35

Bologna–Cagliari

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bologna		Cagliari
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	5
65%	Possession	35%
493	Passes	273
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bologna 1.45 · Cagliari 0.94. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Bologna 13 · Cagliari 8; on target 4 and 2.
Bologna kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

V. Crezzini→

3.95

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Bologna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Bologna, 1.04 for Cagliari.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (1X — Bologna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,484 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bologna to win43.4%

Draw29.2%

Cagliari to win27.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bologna lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time47.0%

Cagliari lead at half-time20.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bologna ahead or level79.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Cagliari ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1484 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bologna: at least 12Actual: 13
Cagliari: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

Bologna: at least 5Actual: 7
Cagliari: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bologna score1.45

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cagliari score0.94

Attack: Cagliari score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.5%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.