Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 34

AC Milan–Juventus

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Juventus
8	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
454	Passes	503
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.24 · Juventus 1.31. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots AC Milan 8 · Juventus 10; on target 1 and 5.

Referee

S. Sozza→

4.49

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “Juventus to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for AC Milan, 1.26 for Juventus.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,477 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win35.7%

Draw28.9%

Juventus to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AC Milan lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time46.8%

Juventus lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Juventus ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1477 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 8Actual: 12
Juventus: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 1
Juventus: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.24

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Juventus score1.31

Attack: Juventus score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.2%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.