Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 34

Torino–Inter

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'InterMarcus Thuram (assist: F. Dimarco)
61'InterYann Bisseck (assist: F. Dimarco)
70'TorinoGiovanni Simeone (assist: Emirhan İlkhan)
79'TorinoNikola Vlašić (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		Inter
14	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
343	Passes	596
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 0.80 · Inter 1.90. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Torino 14 · Inter 14; on target 2 and 5.
Inter kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Mariani→

4.05

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.8%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Torino, 2.20 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (X2 — draw or Inter win).
These values were computed from 1,476 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win11.6%

Draw19.6%

Inter to win68.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Torino win or draw31.2%

12 — any result other than a draw80.4%

X2 — draw or Inter win88.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Torino lead at half-time7.7%

Level at half-time37.0%

Inter lead at half-time55.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level44.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Inter ahead92.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1476 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 11Actual: 10
Inter: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Torino: at least 3Actual: 5
Inter: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score0.80

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.90

Attack: Inter score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.8%1–210.8%1–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1476 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 147 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.