Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Lecce–Fiorentina

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 20 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'FiorentinaJ. Harrison (assist: Rolando Mandragora)
71'LecceTiago Gabriel (assist: Antonino Gallo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lecce		Fiorentina
14	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
373	Passes	327
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lecce 0.92 · Fiorentina 1.53. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Lecce 14 · Fiorentina 5; on target 4 and 3.
Lecce kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

F. Maresca→

5.48

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Lecce, 1.37 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or Fiorentina win).
These values were computed from 1,469 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lecce to win25.8%

Draw29.2%

Fiorentina to win45.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lecce lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time47.6%

Fiorentina lead at half-time29.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Lecce ahead or level70.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1469 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lecce: at least 13Actual: 8
Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Lecce: at least 4Actual: 5
Fiorentina: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lecce score0.92

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.53

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–112.2%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.