Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Pisa–Genoa

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'PisaSimone Canestrelli (assist: S. Angori)
41'GenoaJ. Ekhator (assist: Tommaso Baldanzi)
55'GenoaLorenzo Colombo (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pisa		Genoa
12	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
316	Passes	405
250	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pisa 1.08 · Genoa 1.40. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Pisa 12 · Genoa 13; on target 4 and 5.
Genoa kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

V. Crezzini→

3.95

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Genoa to win”. Second comes “Pisa to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Pisa, 1.16 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 69.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,467 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pisa to win31.8%

Draw31.0%

Genoa to win37.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Pisa lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time47.0%

Genoa lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Pisa ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1467 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pisa: at least 13Actual: 21
Genoa: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Pisa: at least 4Actual: 5
Genoa: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pisa score1.08

Attack: Pisa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score1.40

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pisa concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.8%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.