Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Hellas Verona–AC Milan

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'AC MilanAdrien Rabiot (assist: R. Leao)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		AC Milan
13	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
421	Passes	491
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 0.84 · AC Milan 1.65. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hellas Verona 13 · AC Milan 6; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

D. Chiffi→

3.95

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.4%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.77 for Hellas Verona, 1.81 for AC Milan.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (X2 — draw or AC Milan win).
These values were computed from 1,466 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win14.0%

Draw23.6%

AC Milan to win62.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hellas Verona win or draw37.6%

12 — any result other than a draw76.4%

X2 — draw or AC Milan win86.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hellas Verona lead at half-time15.1%

Level at half-time43.6%

AC Milan lead at half-time41.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level58.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or AC Milan ahead84.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1466 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 13Actual: 13
AC Milan: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 4Actual: 6
AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.84

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Milan score1.65

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.0%0–212.8%1–112.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1466 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 146 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.