Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Udinese–Parma

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'ParmaNesta Elphege (assist: G. Strefezza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Udinese		Parma
16	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
441	Passes	349
386	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Udinese 1.37 · Parma 0.94. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Udinese 16 · Parma 10; on target 3 and 1.
Udinese kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Di Marco→

4.32

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “Udinese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Udinese, 0.91 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (1X — Udinese win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,462 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Udinese to win44.7%

Draw30.3%

Parma to win25.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Udinese lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time47.9%

Parma lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Udinese ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Parma ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1462 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Udinese: at least 13Actual: 11
Parma: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Udinese: at least 4Actual: 10
Parma: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Udinese score1.37

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score0.94

Attack: Parma score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–013.6%0–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.