Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Sassuolo–Como

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'SassuoloC. Volpato (assist: M. Nzola)
44'SassuoloM. Nzola (assist: Armand Laurienté)
45'ComoNico Paz (assist: Ivan Smolčić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sassuolo		Como
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
30%	Possession	70%
235	Passes	528
168	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sassuolo 0.90 · Como 1.68. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sassuolo 11 · Como 12; on target 4 and 3.
Como kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

F. Fourneau→

4.81

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.4%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Sassuolo, 2.08 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (X2 — draw or Como win).
These values were computed from 1,460 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sassuolo to win14.2%

Draw21.3%

Como to win64.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sassuolo win or draw35.6%

12 — any result other than a draw78.7%

X2 — draw or Como win85.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Sassuolo lead at half-time12.3%

Level at half-time41.8%

Como lead at half-time45.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sassuolo ahead or level54.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Como ahead87.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1460 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sassuolo: at least 11Actual: 14
Como: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 5
Como: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sassuolo score0.90

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score1.68

Attack: Como score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.0%1–211.0%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1460 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 70 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.