Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Parma–Napoli

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'ParmaG. Strefezza (assist: Nesta Elphege)
60'NapoliS. McTominay (assist: Rasmus Højlund)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Parma		Napoli
3	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	6
1	Shots inside the box	16
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
26%	Possession	74%
246	Passes	715
178	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Parma 0.80 · Napoli 1.49. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Parma 3 · Napoli 20; on target 2 and 6.
Napoli kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

M. Di Bello→

4.24

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.3%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.66 for Parma, 1.63 for Napoli.
The highest double chance value is 86.7% (X2 — draw or Napoli win).
These values were computed from 1,456 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Parma to win13.3%

Draw25.4%

Napoli to win61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Parma lead at half-time12.1%

Level at half-time45.0%

Napoli lead at half-time42.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Parma ahead or level57.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Napoli ahead87.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1456 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Parma: at least 10Actual: 4
Napoli: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Parma: at least 3Actual: 3
Napoli: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Parma score0.80

Attack: Parma score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napoli score1.49

Attack: Napoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.1%0–214.0%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.