Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Adana Demirspor–Fenerbahçe

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 2 February 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

84'Adana DemirsporC. Ndiaye (penalty)
88'FenerbahçeE. Valencia (assist: W. Arao)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Fenerbahçe
20	Shots	25
9	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	20
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	10
3	Offsides	4
38%	Possession	62%
322	Passes	528
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 1.46 · Fenerbahçe 1.69. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Adana Demirspor 20 · Fenerbahçe 25; on target 9 and 5.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (62%).

Unavailable players

Adana Demirspor

F. Gulbrandsendoubtful · Muscle Injury

Fenerbahçe

M. Crespoout · yellow-card suspension
N. Sangareout · Knee Injury
Joao Pedrodoubtful · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:02.

Referee

A. Palabıyık→

5.17

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “Adana Demirspor to win” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Adana Demirspor, 1.93 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win28.4%

Draw23.8%

Fenerbahçe to win47.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor win or draw52.3%

12 — any result other than a draw76.2%

X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win71.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time43.5%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 13Actual: 13
Fenerbahçe: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 3Actual: 5
Fenerbahçe: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 58.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score1.46

Attack: Adana Demirspor score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.69

Attack: Fenerbahçe score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%1–210.0%2–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 196 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 20 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.