Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Cagliari–Cremonese

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'CagliariS. Esposito (assist: Zé Pedro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cagliari		Cremonese
17	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
253	Passes	504
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cagliari 1.36 · Cremonese 1.06. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Cagliari 17 · Cremonese 5; on target 5 and 2.
Cremonese kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.32

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Cagliari to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Cagliari, 0.90 for Cremonese.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Cagliari win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,451 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cagliari to win46.3%

Draw29.8%

Cremonese to win23.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cagliari lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time46.9%

Cremonese lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Cagliari ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Cremonese ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1451 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cagliari: at least 13Actual: 9
Cremonese: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Cagliari: at least 5Actual: 6
Cremonese: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cagliari score1.36

Attack: Cagliari score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cremonese concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cremonese score1.06

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–013.6%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.