Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 32

AS Roma–Pisa

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'AS RomaDonyell Malen
43'AS RomaDonyell Malen (assist: D. Rensch)
52'AS RomaDonyell Malen (assist: Matías Soulé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Pisa
8	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
591	Passes	412
513	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.84 · Pisa 0.75. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AS Roma 8 · Pisa 9; on target 3 and 5.
AS Roma kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

E. Feliciani→

3.54

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for AS Roma, 0.71 for Pisa.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,450 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win70.0%

Draw19.8%

Pisa to win10.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AS Roma win or draw89.8%

12 — any result other than a draw80.2%

X2 — draw or Pisa win30.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

AS Roma lead at half-time45.2%

Level at half-time44.2%

Pisa lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Pisa ahead54.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1450 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 11Actual: 11
Pisa: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

AS Roma: at least 5Actual: 1
Pisa: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.84

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pisa concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pisa score0.75

Attack: Pisa score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.7%1–012.0%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1450 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.