Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 31

Pisa–Torino

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'TorinoC. Adams (assist: Marcus Pedersen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pisa		Torino
7	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
419	Passes	428
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pisa 1.21 · Torino 1.31. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Pisa 7 · Torino 13; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

L. Zufferli→

4.00

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Torino to win”. Second comes “Pisa to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Pisa, 1.26 for Torino.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,444 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pisa to win30.8%

Draw30.0%

Torino to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Pisa lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time45.7%

Torino lead at half-time30.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Pisa ahead or level69.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Torino ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1444 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pisa: at least 10Actual: 12
Torino: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Pisa: at least 4Actual: 1
Torino: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pisa score1.21

Attack: Pisa score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Torino score1.31

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pisa concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.2%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.