Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 31

Hellas Verona–Fiorentina

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'FiorentinaNicolò Fagioli (assist: J. Harrison)
85'Hellas VeronaT. Suslov · red card
85'FiorentinaAlbert Guðmundsson · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Fiorentina
21	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	8
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
397	Passes	431
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 0.97 · Fiorentina 1.52. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hellas Verona 21 · Fiorentina 5; on target 8 and 1.

Referee

M. Guida→

3.63

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Hellas Verona, 1.36 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (X2 — draw or Fiorentina win).
These values were computed from 1,441 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win23.9%

Draw29.5%

Fiorentina to win46.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hellas Verona lead at half-time16.1%

Level at half-time43.3%

Fiorentina lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead83.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1441 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 16Actual: 15
Fiorentina: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 9
Fiorentina: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.97

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.52

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–113.2%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.