Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 30

Fiorentina–Inter

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'InterPio Esposito (assist: Nicolò Barella)
77'FiorentinaCher Ndour

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fiorentina		Inter
16	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
383	Passes	577
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fiorentina 0.94 · Inter 1.79. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fiorentina 16 · Inter 12; on target 6 and 4.
Inter kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Colombo→

4.77

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Fiorentina, 1.94 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (X2 — draw or Inter win).
These values were computed from 1,439 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fiorentina to win17.3%

Draw23.1%

Inter to win59.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fiorentina win or draw40.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or Inter win82.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fiorentina lead at half-time14.0%

Level at half-time42.1%

Inter lead at half-time43.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Fiorentina ahead or level56.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Inter ahead86.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1439 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fiorentina: at least 10Actual: 16
Inter: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

Fiorentina: at least 3Actual: 3
Inter: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fiorentina score0.94

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.79

Attack: Inter score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–211.0%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1439 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.