Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 30

AS Roma–Lecce

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'AS RomaR. Vaz (assist: Mario Hermoso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Lecce
14	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	2
5	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
577	Passes	279
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.72 · Lecce 0.69. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AS Roma 14 · Lecce 8; on target 2 and 3.
AS Roma kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

J. L. Sacchi→

4.00

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.7%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for AS Roma, 0.69 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 87.8% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,438 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win64.7%

Draw23.1%

Lecce to win12.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AS Roma lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time47.7%

Lecce lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1438 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 12Actual: 14
Lecce: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

AS Roma: at least 5Actual: 10
Lecce: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.72

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.69

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%2–014.0%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.