Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 30

Juventus–Sassuolo

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'JuventusK. Yildiz (assist: Francisco Conceição)
52'SassuoloA. Pinamonti (assist: D. Berardi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juventus		Sassuolo
18	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
570	Passes	300
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juventus 2.01 · Sassuolo 0.73. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Juventus 18 · Sassuolo 7; on target 8 and 1.
Juventus kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Marchetti→

4.10

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.1%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.45 for Juventus, 0.77 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (1X — Juventus win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,434 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juventus to win75.1%

Draw16.5%

Sassuolo to win8.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Juventus win or draw91.6%

12 — any result other than a draw83.5%

X2 — draw or Sassuolo win24.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Juventus lead at half-time39.6%

Level at half-time43.3%

Sassuolo lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Juventus ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead60.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1434 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juventus: at least 12Actual: 7
Sassuolo: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Juventus: at least 5Actual: 9
Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juventus score2.01

Attack: Juventus score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score0.73

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%2–110.2%3–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1434 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 105 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.