Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 30

AC Milan–Torino

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'AC MilanStrahinja Pavlović
44'TorinoGiovanni Simeone
54'AC MilanAdrien Rabiot (assist: Christian Pulišić)
56'AC MilanY. Fofana (assist: Zachary Athekame)
83'TorinoNikola Vlašić (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Torino
15	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
565	Passes	315
501	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.89 · Torino 0.78. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots AC Milan 15 · Torino 19; on target 6 and 7.
AC Milan kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

F. Fourneau→

4.83

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.9%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for AC Milan, 0.67 for Torino.
The highest double chance value is 90.5% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,433 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win70.9%

Draw19.6%

Torino to win9.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

AC Milan lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time43.2%

Torino lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Torino ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1433 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 9Actual: 9
Torino: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

AC Milan: at least 5Actual: 4
Torino: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.89

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Torino score0.78

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.3%1–012.6%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.