Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 29

Hellas Verona–Genoa

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'GenoaVitinha
86'GenoaLeo Østigård (assist: Aarón Martín)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Genoa
8	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
302	Passes	430
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 1.03 · Genoa 1.33. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Hellas Verona 8 · Genoa 11; on target 1 and 3.
Genoa kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Marchetti→

4.12

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Genoa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Hellas Verona, 1.16 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (X2 — draw or Genoa win).
These values were computed from 1,424 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win28.1%

Draw31.8%

Genoa to win40.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

22	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hellas Verona lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time44.3%

Genoa lead at half-time34.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level65.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1424 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 14Actual: 22
Genoa: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 4Actual: 4
Genoa: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score1.03

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score1.33

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–113.7%0–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.