Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 29

Napoli–Lecce

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'LecceJamil Siebert (assist: Antonino Gallo)
46'NapoliRasmus Højlund (assist: Matteo Politano)
67'NapoliMatteo Politano

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Lecce
12	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
601	Passes	246
528	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.76 · Lecce 0.63. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Napoli 12 · Lecce 12; on target 4 and 2.
Napoli kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

R. Abisso→

4.53

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.8%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Napoli, 0.64 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 89.2% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,422 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win66.8%

Draw22.4%

Lecce to win10.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Napoli lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time42.7%

Lecce lead at half-time10.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level89.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1422 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 11Actual: 11
Lecce: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Napoli: at least 5Actual: 7
Lecce: at least 2Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.76

Attack: Napoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.63

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.9%2–014.8%1–111.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.