Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 29

Torino–Parma

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'TorinoGiovanni Simeone
20'ParmaMateo Pellegrino (assist: G. Strefezza)
55'TorinoEmirhan İlkhan
56'TorinoMandela Keita (own goal)
90'TorinoDuván Zapata (assist: Sandro Kulenović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		Parma
15	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
4	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
388	Passes	389
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 1.25 · Parma 1.06. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Torino 15 · Parma 6; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

F. Maresca→

5.54

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Torino to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Torino, 0.99 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Torino win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,420 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win43.2%

Draw29.9%

Parma to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Torino lead at half-time30.8%

Level at half-time48.4%

Parma lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or Parma ahead69.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1420 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 13Actual: 17
Parma: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Torino: at least 4Actual: 2
Parma: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score1.25

Attack: Torino score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score1.06

Attack: Parma score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.5%0–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.