Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 28

AC Milan–Inter

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AC MilanPervis Estupiñán (assist: Y. Fofana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Inter
9	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
382	Passes	630
327	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.16 · Inter 1.52. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AC Milan 9 · Inter 11; on target 2 and 2.
Inter kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.29

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “AC Milan to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for AC Milan, 1.40 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,418 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win30.9%

Draw28.3%

Inter to win40.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AC Milan lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time45.0%

Inter lead at half-time36.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level63.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Inter ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1418 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 9Actual: 8
Inter: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

AC Milan: at least 3Actual: 1
Inter: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.16

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.16 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Inter score1.52

Attack: Inter score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.6%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.