Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 27

Udinese–Fiorentina

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 2 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'UdineseC. Kabasele (assist: N. Zaniolo)
64'UdineseKeinan Davis (penalty)
90'UdineseA. Buksa (assist: Lennon Miller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Udinese		Fiorentina
10	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	0
8	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
299	Passes	556
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Udinese 1.13 · Fiorentina 1.48. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Udinese 10 · Fiorentina 10; on target 7 and 0.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

L. Pairetto→

4.56

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Udinese to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Udinese, 1.35 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,409 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Udinese to win29.7%

Draw29.0%

Fiorentina to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Udinese lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time45.5%

Fiorentina lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Udinese ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1409 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Udinese: at least 15Actual: 16
Fiorentina: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Udinese: at least 4Actual: 5
Fiorentina: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Udinese score1.13

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.48

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–110.6%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.