Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 27

Inter–Genoa

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'InterF. Dimarco (assist: H. Mkhitaryan)
70'InterH. Calhanoglu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Genoa
14	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
544	Passes	432
477	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 2.10 · Genoa 0.67. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Inter 14 · Genoa 6; on target 6 and 2.
Inter kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Fabbri→

4.48

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.7%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for Inter, 0.69 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 91.5% (1X — Inter win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,403 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win73.7%

Draw17.8%

Genoa to win8.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Inter win or draw91.5%

12 — any result other than a draw82.2%

X2 — draw or Genoa win26.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Inter lead at half-time56.1%

Level at half-time36.8%

Genoa lead at half-time7.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Inter ahead or level92.9%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead43.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1403 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Inter: at least 12Actual: 13
Genoa: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Inter: at least 7Actual: 10
Genoa: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score2.10

Attack: Inter score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score0.67

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–011.1%3–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1403 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 102 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.