Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 27

Como–Lecce

3–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'LecceLassana Coulibaly (assist: L. Banda)
18'ComoAnastasios Douvikas (assist: Jesús Rodriguez)
35'ComoJesús Rodriguez (assist: Máximo Perrone)
44'ComoMarc Kempf (assist: Lucas Da Cunha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Lecce
12	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
69%	Possession	31%
607	Passes	271
527	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.78 · Lecce 0.63. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Como 12 · Lecce 5; on target 7 and 2.
Como kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

F. Fourneau→

4.89

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.9%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Como, 0.66 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,401 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win68.9%

Draw20.9%

Lecce to win10.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Como win or draw89.8%

12 — any result other than a draw79.1%

X2 — draw or Lecce win31.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.9%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Como lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time48.0%

Lecce lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1401 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 12Actual: 15
Lecce: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Como: at least 5Actual: 5
Lecce: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.78

Attack: Como score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.63

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.6%1–013.7%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1401 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.