Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 26

AS Roma–Cremonese

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'AS RomaBryan Cristante (assist: L. Pellegrini)
77'AS RomaE. Ndicka (assist: Bryan Cristante)
86'AS RomaNiccolò Pisilli

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Cremonese
23	Shots	2
5	Shots on target	0
19	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	1
0	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
487	Passes	362
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.66 · Cremonese 0.74. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AS Roma 23 · Cremonese 2; on target 5 and 0.
AS Roma kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Di Bello→

4.32

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.4%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for AS Roma, 0.66 for Cremonese.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,397 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win73.4%

Draw18.1%

Cremonese to win8.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AS Roma lead at half-time47.0%

Level at half-time43.1%

Cremonese lead at half-time9.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level90.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Cremonese ahead53.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1397 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 12Actual: 12
Cremonese: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

AS Roma: at least 6Actual: 9
Cremonese: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.66

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cremonese score0.74

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.4%1–011.9%3–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.