Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 26

AC Milan–Parma

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 9%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'ParmaMariano Troilo (assist: Emanuele Valeri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Parma
25	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
626	Passes	315
578	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.92 · Parma 0.75. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots AC Milan 25 · Parma 9; on target 6 and 3.
AC Milan kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Piccinini→

4.39

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.1%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for AC Milan, 0.66 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 91.5% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,396 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win73.1%

Draw18.3%

Parma to win8.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AC Milan win or draw91.5%

12 — any result other than a draw81.7%

X2 — draw or Parma win26.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

AC Milan lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time44.5%

Parma lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Parma ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1396 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 10Actual: 13
Parma: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

AC Milan: at least 5Actual: 5
Parma: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.92

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score0.75

Attack: Parma score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.4%1–012.1%3–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1396 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 63 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.