Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 26

Juventus–Como

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'ComoMërgim Vojvoda (assist: Anastasios Douvikas)
61'ComoM. Caqueret (assist: Lucas Da Cunha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juventus		Como
11	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
4	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
481	Passes	456
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juventus 1.40 · Como 1.06. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Juventus 11 · Como 11; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.32

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Juventus, 1.10 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (1X — Juventus win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,391 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juventus to win45.6%

Draw27.8%

Como to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Juventus lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

Como lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Juventus ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Como ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1391 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juventus: at least 12Actual: 10
Como: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Juventus: at least 4Actual: 7
Como: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juventus score1.40

Attack: Juventus score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.40 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Como score1.06

Attack: Como score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.4%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.