Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 23

Pisa–Sassuolo

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'SassuoloD. Berardi (assist: Kristian Thorstvedt)
45'SassuoloAntonio Caracciolo (own goal)
51'PisaM. Aebischer (assist: R. Durosinmi)
58'SassuoloI. Kone (assist: Nemanja Matić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pisa		Sassuolo
15	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	18
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
4	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
443	Passes	371
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pisa 1.29 · Sassuolo 1.19. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Pisa 15 · Sassuolo 21; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

A. Arena→

4.69

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Sassuolo to win”. Second comes “Pisa to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Pisa, 1.26 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,361 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pisa to win30.9%

Draw29.9%

Sassuolo to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Pisa lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time45.8%

Sassuolo lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Pisa ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1361 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pisa: at least 12Actual: 13
Sassuolo: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Pisa: at least 4Actual: 2
Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pisa score1.29

Attack: Pisa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score1.19

Attack: Sassuolo score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pisa concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.1%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.