Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 21

Lazio–Como

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 19 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'ComoMartin Baturina (assist: Álex Valle)
24'ComoNico Paz (assist: M. Caqueret)
49'ComoNico Paz (assist: Martin Baturina)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lazio		Como
8	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
384	Passes	754
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lazio 1.13 · Como 1.16. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Lazio 8 · Como 11; on target 4 and 6.
Como kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Fabbri→

4.47

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Lazio, 1.14 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 69.1% (X2 — draw or Como win).
These values were computed from 1,349 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lazio to win30.9%

Draw31.4%

Como to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Lazio lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time50.3%

Como lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Lazio ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time49.7%

X2 — level or Como ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1349 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lazio: at least 10Actual: 14
Como: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Lazio: at least 4Actual: 3
Como: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lazio score1.13

Attack: Lazio score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score1.16

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lazio's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.4%0–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.