Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 21

Napoli–Sassuolo

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'NapoliStanislav Lobotka

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Sassuolo
11	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
498	Passes	439
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.78 · Sassuolo 0.72. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Napoli 11 · Sassuolo 21; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

F. Fourneau→

4.98

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.6%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Napoli, 0.64 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,342 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win66.6%

Draw22.4%

Sassuolo to win11.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Napoli win or draw89.0%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or Sassuolo win33.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Napoli lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time41.5%

Sassuolo lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1342 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 11Actual: 10
Sassuolo: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Napoli: at least 5Actual: 5
Sassuolo: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (47.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.78

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score0.72

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.8%2–014.7%1–111.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1342 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.