Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 21

Udinese–Inter

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'InterLautaro Martínez (assist: Pio Esposito)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Udinese		Inter
5	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
371	Passes	616
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Udinese 0.78 · Inter 1.92. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Udinese 5 · Inter 14; on target 1 and 5.
Inter kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Di Bello→

4.33

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Udinese, 2.00 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (X2 — draw or Inter win).
These values were computed from 1,341 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Udinese to win12.8%

Draw21.6%

Inter to win65.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Udinese win or draw34.4%

12 — any result other than a draw78.4%

X2 — draw or Inter win87.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Udinese lead at half-time9.4%

Level at half-time40.0%

Inter lead at half-time50.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Udinese ahead or level49.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Inter ahead90.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1341 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Udinese: at least 11Actual: 17
Inter: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Udinese: at least 3Actual: 2
Inter: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Udinese score0.78

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.92

Attack: Inter score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.4%0–111.3%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1341 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 134 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.