Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Hellas Verona–Bologna

2–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Thursday, 15 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Hellas VeronaGift Orban (assist: A. Sarr)
21'BolognaR. Orsolini (assist: Remo Freuler)
29'BolognaJens Odgaard (assist: Benjamín Domínguez)
44'BolognaSantiago Castro (assist: Tommaso Pobega)
71'Hellas VeronaRemo Freuler (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Bologna
15	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
5	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
342	Passes	532
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 0.96 · Bologna 1.41. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Hellas Verona 15 · Bologna 14; on target 5 and 5.
Bologna kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

4.22

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Bologna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Hellas Verona, 1.37 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (X2 — draw or Bologna win).
These values were computed from 1,338 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win25.6%

Draw29.3%

Bologna to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Hellas Verona lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time46.3%

Bologna lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Bologna ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1338 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 16Actual: 13
Bologna: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 4
Bologna: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.96

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score1.41

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–112.3%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.