Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Inter–Lecce

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'InterPio Esposito

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Lecce
21	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
516	Passes	253
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 2.18 · Lecce 0.50. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Inter 21 · Lecce 10; on target 7 and 1.
Inter kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Fabio Maresca, Italy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.5%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Inter, 0.56 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 95.3% (1X — Inter win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,337 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win82.5%

Draw12.8%

Lecce to win4.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Inter win or draw95.3%

12 — any result other than a draw87.2%

X2 — draw or Lecce win17.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (12.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Inter lead at half-time53.2%

Level at half-time39.7%

Lecce lead at half-time7.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Inter ahead or level92.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead46.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1337 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Inter: at least 12Actual: 11
Lecce: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Inter: at least 6Actual: 11
Lecce: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score2.18

Attack: Inter score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.50

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.8%3–013.1%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1337 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 133 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.