Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Napoli–Parma

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Parma
16	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
712	Passes	326
639	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.68 · Parma 0.73. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Napoli 16 · Parma 4; on target 4 and 1.
Napoli kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Michael Fabbri, Italy→

3.89

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.0%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Napoli, 0.59 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 92.3% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,336 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win74.0%

Draw18.2%

Parma to win7.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Napoli win or draw92.3%

12 — any result other than a draw81.8%

X2 — draw or Parma win26.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Napoli lead at half-time48.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Parma lead at half-time9.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level90.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Parma ahead51.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1336 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 11Actual: 11
Parma: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Napoli: at least 5Actual: 7
Parma: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.68

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score0.73

Attack: Parma score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.5%1–013.4%3–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1336 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 57 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.