Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 20

Atalanta–Torino

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'AtalantaCharles De Ketelaere (assist: Lorenzo Bernasconi)
90'AtalantaMario Pašalić (assist: Gianluca Scamacca)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		Torino
18	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
4	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
492	Passes	382
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 1.65 · Torino 0.84. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Atalanta 18 · Torino 10; on target 5 and 3.
Atalanta kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Francesco Fourneau, Italy→

4.57

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Atalanta, 0.81 for Torino.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (1X — Atalanta win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,329 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win61.2%

Draw23.9%

Torino to win14.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Atalanta lead at half-time46.1%

Level at half-time40.9%

Torino lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Atalanta ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Torino ahead53.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1329 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atalanta: at least 10Actual: 14
Torino: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Atalanta: at least 5Actual: 5
Torino: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score1.65

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Torino score0.84

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.6%2–012.3%1–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.