Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 20

AS Roma–Sassuolo

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'AS RomaManu Koné (assist: Matías Soulé)
79'AS RomaMatías Soulé (assist: Stephan El Shaarawy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Sassuolo
26	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	3
16	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
588	Passes	329
518	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.57 · Sassuolo 0.87. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AS Roma 26 · Sassuolo 5; on target 6 and 3.
AS Roma kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro, Italy→

4.18

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for AS Roma, 0.82 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,328 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win57.3%

Draw25.8%

Sassuolo to win16.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AS Roma lead at half-time41.9%

Level at half-time44.0%

Sassuolo lead at half-time14.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level85.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead58.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1328 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 12Actual: 15
Sassuolo: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

AS Roma: at least 4Actual: 5
Sassuolo: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.57

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score0.87

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%1–113.0%2–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.