Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 19

AC Milan–Genoa

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 8 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'GenoaLorenzo Colombo (assist: R. Malinovskyi)
90'AC MilanR. Leao

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Genoa
32	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	2
25	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
12	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
558	Passes	371
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.67 · Genoa 0.88. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AC Milan 32 · Genoa 7; on target 8 and 2.
AC Milan kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

4.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for AC Milan, 0.63 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 88.7% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,325 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win65.6%

Draw23.1%

Genoa to win11.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AC Milan lead at half-time44.5%

Level at half-time42.3%

Genoa lead at half-time13.2%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level86.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead55.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1325 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 10Actual: 12
Genoa: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

AC Milan: at least 6Actual: 12
Genoa: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.67

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score0.88

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.4%2–014.7%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.