Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 19

Cremonese–Cagliari

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 8 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'CremoneseD. Johnsen (assist: J. Vardy)
29'CremoneseJ. Vardy (assist: F. Bonazzoli)
51'CagliariMichel Adopo (assist: G. Borrelli)
88'CagliariY. Trepy (assist: L. Mazzitelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Cagliari
12	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
405	Passes	517
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 1.26 · Cagliari 1.12. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Cremonese 12 · Cagliari 21; on target 5 and 5.
Cagliari kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Kevin Bonacina, Italy→

4.50

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Cremonese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Cremonese, 0.97 for Cagliari.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (1X — Cremonese win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,324 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win39.6%

Draw31.4%

Cagliari to win29.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Cremonese lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time47.9%

Cagliari lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Cagliari ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1324 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 12Actual: 16
Cagliari: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Cremonese: at least 3Actual: 2
Cagliari: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score1.26

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cagliari score1.12

Attack: Cagliari score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–013.0%0–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.